Search results for "100-year flood"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Use of L-moments approach for regional flood frequency analysis in Sicily, Italy
2008
Extremely great floods are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for the entire world. Estimates of their return periods and design values are of great importance in hydrologic modeling, engineering practice for water resources and reservoirs design and management, planning for weather-related emergencies, etc. Regional flood frequency analysis resolves the problem of estimating the extreme flood events for catchments having short data records or ungauged catchments. This paper analyzes annual maximum peak flood discharge data recorded from more than 50 stream flow gauging sites in Sicily, Italy, in order to derive regional flood frequency curves. First these data…
Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables
2008
In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) de…
Using post-flood surveys and geomorphologic mapping to evaluate hydrological and hydraulic models: The flash flood of the Girona River (Spain) in 2007
2016
This paper analyzes the Girona River (Spain) flash flood, occurred on the 12th of October 2007, combining hydrological and hydraulic modeling with geomorphologic mapping and post-flood survey information. This research aims to reproduce the flood event in order to understand and decipher the flood processes and dynamics on a system of prograding alluvial fans. The hydrological model TETIS was used to characterize the shape and dimension of the October 2007 Girona River hydrograph. Subsequently, the flood event was reproduced using the free surface flow module of the model RiverFlow2D. The combination of hydrological and hydraulic models was evaluated using post-flood surveys defining maximu…
Flood pattern changes in the rivers of the Baltic countries
2015
Estimation of both the frequency and variation of spring floods is a key issue for the assessment and management of flood risks. Changes in river floods in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been investigated in few national studies. However, there are no studies of the changes of flood patterns by using a common methodology for the rivers of this region. In this study flood pattern changes in the rivers of the Baltic countries were estimated applying trend and frequency analysis for the periods of 1922–2010, 1922–1960, 1961–2010 and 1991–2010, i.e. for the whole spring flood data sets, periods before and after 1960 (this year was considered as the beginning of the remarkable climate change…
Uncertainty evaluation of design rainfall for urban flood risk analysis
2011
A reliable and long dataset describing urban flood locations, volumes and depths would be an ideal prerequisite for assessing flood frequency distributions. However, data are often piecemeal and long-term hydraulic modelling is often adopted to estimate floods from historical rainfall series. Long-term modelling approaches are time- and resource-consuming, and synthetically designed rainfalls are often used to estimate flood frequencies. The present paper aimsto assess the uncertainty of such an approach and for suggesting improvements in thedefinition of synthetic rainfall data for flooding frequency analysis. According to this aim, a multivariate statistical analysis based on a copulameth…
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Mapping Using Bivariate Analysis Based on Copulas
2017
This study presents a methodology to extract probabilistic flood hazard maps in an area subject to flood risk, taking into account uncertainties in the definition of design hydrographs. Particularly, the authors present a new method to produce probabilistic inundation and flood hazard maps in which the hydrological input (i.e., synthetic flood design event) to a 2D hydraulic model has been obtained by using a bivariate statistical analysis (copulas) to generate flood peak discharges and volumes. This study also aims to quantify the contribution of boundary conditions’ uncertainty in order to evaluate the effect of this uncertainty source on probabilistic flood hazard mapping. Different comb…
Discharges of past flood events based on historical river profiles
2008
Abstract. This paper presents a case study on the estimation of peak discharges of extreme flood events during the 19th century of the Neckar River located in south-western Germany. It was carried out as part of the BMBF (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research) research project RIMAX (Risk Management of Extreme Flood Events). The discharge estimations were made for the 1824 and 1882 flood events, and are based on historical cross profiles. The 1-D model Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was applied with different roughness coefficients to determine these estimations. The results are compared (i) with contemporary historical calculations for the 1824 a…